Natural rubber report: Shanghai rubber high shock probability

Operation suggestion: from the fundamental point of view, it seems that it is difficult to find big bad news in the near future, which can effectively crack down on the spot price of rubber, the warming of macro liquidity expectation, the support of Thailand's purchasing and storage, the stop cutting period faced by major producing countries, the speculation of baht appreciation, drought in Yunnan and other topics, and the strong transaction are the main factors supporting the rise after the festival. After the Lantern Festival, the operating rate of most downstream tire enterprises has risen from about 50% to more than 70%. The high-pressure inventory in Qingdao Free Trade Zone has eased slightly through the flow of traders and downstream procurement. In addition, the inventory digestion period in the later half of a month or so, the overall pressure has been far lower than that of a year ago, which also supports the simultaneous rise and fall of rubber prices in the near future.

From the technical point of view, since 2012, HuJiao 1205 contract has continued to rise, with a cumulative increase of 25.9%. However, the two waves of adjustment during this period are no more than 6%. From the rhythm, it is still in a volatile upward pattern, and each moving average is long. With the main capital involved in the 1209 contract, it is bound to increase the delivery price or move the position. Therefore, the first target 29500 in the early "natural rubber February March strategy report" is expected to be achieved, and the next target 30200 is expected to be achieved in the next 5-8 trading days. However, it is easy to see the risk of continuing to catch up. It is suggested that the delivery should be based on the high price, and the probability of high fluctuation and washing up in the later period has gradually increased, Those with no position can leave the market and wait, or large funds can participate in arbitrage. From the perspective of arbitrage, the spread between the Shanghai Rubber 1205 contract and the 1209 contract successfully converged within 300 points on February 24, and there was an arbitrage window, which could participate in the arbitrage strategy of buying 05 and selling 09. In the next five trading days, with the formation of the shift month, it is still possible to further converge the arbitrage opportunities, and investors can further pay attention to the intervention. The stop profit spread is around 1500 points, and the stop loss spread is - 100 points. Rubber edge removal machine, rubber trimming machine, burring machine, rubber ring automatic edge removal machine